Republic

NBB expects stable real effective exchange rate of Belarusian ruble in 2007

The National Bank of Belarus expects the real effective exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to be stable in 2007. Deputy chairman of the NBB board Nikolai Luzgin told the press today, the national major monetary management guidelines for 2007 expect the variation range of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate against the Russian ruble and US dollar to expand in comparison with 2006. In 2007 taking into account the foreign exchange market and the foreign trade status, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the US dollar is expected to vary plus/minus 2.5 per cent. Taking into account the forecast mutual changes of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble and US dollar, the variation range of the Belarusian ruble nominal exchange rate against the Russian ruble will make plus/minus 4 per cent. Nikolai Luzgin explained, in practice forecasts of the exchange rate limits are rather relative. “However hard we may try, we cannot precisely plan changes of the exchange rates in 2007 due to several factors. Therefore, we make stable Belarusian ruble exchange rate part of the national major monetary management guidelines for 2007. The international foreign exchange market will determine how the exchange rate will vary”, he noted. That is why, Nikolai Luzgin believes, more attention should be paid to figures of the real effective exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. Taking into account forecast aspects of the national economy competitive ability defined not by exchange rate factors, the next year’s national major monetary management guidelines expect the real effective rate of the Belarusian ruble to gain 4 per cent at most in comparison with 2006. According to Nikolai Luzgin, in the future the NBB may start using some aggregated parameter as a reference point of the exchange rate policy. The basket of currencies can be used for that.